How to Predict When an Sound Trend Will Peak on TikTok?

TikTok is full of creative influencers whose videos become trending audios when you least expected.

But how can we find these audios before they become viral? And how can creators use them to increase followers?

We will understand what are the main drivers that define whether a sound will die in 3 days or last 3 months.

Table of contents:

• Who is Using These TikTok Sounds?

• How Flexible are These Sounds to use?

• Do These Sounds Belong to a Subculture?

• When to Join the Sound Trend?

 

Who is Using These TikTok Sounds?

TikTok sounds don’t thrive based on the audio itself but based on who is using them and how it spreads.

The clearest indicator of whether a TikTok sound will live long enough to become a trend or die trying is on the patterns of creators who use it.

There are 2 main categories of creator adoption:

#1 Big Influencers Only

An influencer with 5M followers following a trend will probably give the wrong impression that the trend is at its in high use, but that’s not the case.

When big influencers are the main drivers of a trend, and there are no other creators replicating it, the sound will usually die within days.   

The audience will see this trend as “creators only” content instead of a community trend.

#2 Micro and Mid-Tier

The most stable growing trends are the ones created by users with 10k to 100K who later influence micro influencers that spread it to their niche.

That natural flow of influence creates diversity within their content that can be replicated in different ways every time.

Tiktok’s algorithm tends to push these videos due to their versatility

How Flexible are These Sounds to use?

Whenever you see a new audio ask yourself: can this be replicated in more than one context? If the answer is no, then the audio will have low replication potential.

It doesn’t matter how funny or original a sound trend can be, if it can only be used in one way then it has no flexibility.

What are the signs of a trend sound with high flexibility?

#1: Adaptable Audio

The sound has a loose structure that doesn’t establish what the video is going to be but rather enhances it.

It can be used in different types of content, like POVs, tutorials, and comedy skits. Influencing its own reproduction.

#2 Influential Hook

When the sound has a clear section where the creator can use it as an introduction or to highlight a moment in the video that catches the audience's attention.

This can be the beat drop in the “after” video of a hair tutorial, a catch phrase that can represent a relatable moment, or an instrumental that goes with “a day in the life” video.

#3 Emotional Range

Sounds that can be used for both serious and funny content last longer on the platform since high range leads to high replication content.

If the sound can only be used within a wholesome context, then it’s not a long-lasting trend.

Do These Sounds Belong to a Subculture?

You know you encounter a sound trend that belongs to a subculture when you can’t understand why it is funny without googling it.

Subculture audios spread slowly but stick for longer, which makes it perfect to use while it’s gaining recognition.

What to look out for:

#1 Sense of Ownership

Whenever a sound comes from a niche community, the users who belong to it continue using these sounds and keeping them alive.

When these sounds come from niche communities, it creates a sense of ownership in the users that belong to it.

These sounds are protected from companies overusing this sound and exhausting the trend. Keep an eye on these.

#2 Inside References

If the audio only makes sense to people who know the original video, meme, or context, the trend won’t fade quickly.

The more people are confused in the comments asking, “where’s the sound from”, the more engagement and more searches the trend will have.

#3 Avoid Commercial Overused Sounds

The moment a sound that belongs to a subculture starts being use by multiple ads in one week, I lose its appeal.

When the initial curiosity about the trend dies, and the more companies use it to sell their products, it’s when we know the sound is no longer trending.

When to Join the Sound Trend?

The TikTok algorithm can only tell you what’s trending, but the audience tells you when a sound is on the rise, peak or die down.

The timing behind whether to use a sound or not can be noted in the comments, saves and shares.

There will be signs of fatigue or momentum, and that defines its use.

Pay attention to the signs:

#1 Comment Tone Shifts

To define whether the sound it’s at it’s peak or it’s dying down can be easily track by just reading the comment section.

Comments like “what’s the audio” signal inicial curiosity versus comments like “this sound again” that signal audience fatigue.

#2 Active Consumption

TikTok videos using the audio can be found to have many views but if they come with little reproduction, it’s not in active consumption

Active consumption can be seen in the rise of saves and shares, this means creators are bookmarking to use it later.

Why Predicting a TikTok Sound Trend Matters?

Being able to identify whether a trend is on the rise and adopting it early allows the creator to maximize your chances of ending in someone's For You Page.

TikTok sounds can guide creators to stand out in a highly competitive space like TikTok and reach an audience organically.

Sounds can amplify the reach of a video to new audiences, and being early means getting a better shot at owning the trend before everyone else catches on.